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The Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) for low-income countries (LICs) is a standardized analytical tool to monitor debt sustainability. This paper uses DSAs from three periods around the time of the global economic crisis to analyze the projected trajectories of debt ratios for a sample of LICs. The aggregate data suggest that LIC vulnerabilities improved on the whole during the period prior to the crisis, and that the crisis had a strong short-run impact on key ratios of debt (debt-to-GDP, -exports, and -fiscal revenues) and debt service (debt service-to-exports, and -revenues). Although projected debt burdens increased following the crisis, debt indicators tend to return to their pre-crisis levels over the projection horizon. This may reflect a strong and durable policy response by LICs towards the crisis, or also reflect specific assumptions on the long-run growth dividends of public external debt.

Political Science --- Law, Politics & Government --- Public Finance --- Debts, Public --- Mathematical models. --- Mathematical models --- E-books --- Exports and Imports --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Debt sustainability --- External debt --- Debt burden --- Debt service --- Debts, External --- Burkina Faso

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This paper looks at the link between fiscal policy and debt sustainability in a number of African countries participating in the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Initiative. The paper finds that, on the basis of current fiscal policies, debt levels will remain unsustainable even after these countries graduate from the HIPC Initiative. This finding has important policy implications. By the very requirements of the HIPC Initiative, these countries are expected to increase significantly their poverty-reducing expenditure-possibly resulting in weaker fiscal primary balances and worsening debt sustainability outlook. As offsetting fiscal tightening may not be viable, ensuring debt sustainability may thus require increased availability of (nondebt-creating) grants. Otherwise, debt sustainability in HIPC countries may prove elusive in the long term.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Macroeconomics --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Foreign Aid --- Fiscal Policy --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Debt sustainability --- External debt --- Fiscal stance --- Fiscal policy --- Exchange rate adjustments --- Debts, External --- Mozambique, Republic of

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This paper explores the relationship between external debt and poverty. A number of observers have argued that high external indebtedness is a major cause of poverty. Using the first-differenced general method of moments (GMM) estimator, the paper models the impact of external debt on poverty, measured by life expectancy, infant mortality, and gross primary enrollment rates, while duly taking into account the impact of external debt on income. The paper thus endeavors to bring together the literature that links external debt with income growth and poverty. The main conclusion is that once the effect of income on poverty has been taken into account, external indebtedness indicators have a limited but important impact on poverty.

Exports and Imports --- Poverty and Homelessness --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Health: General --- Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty: General --- International economics --- Health economics --- Poverty & precarity --- Health --- Poverty --- External debt --- Debt burden --- Debt service --- Debts, External --- Guinea

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This paper proposes a new framework for the analysis of public sector debt sustainability. The framework uses concepts and methods from modern practice of contingent claims to develop a quantitative risk-based model of sovereign credit risk. The motivation in developing this framework is to provide a clear and workable complement to traditional debt sustainability analysis which-although it has many useful applications-suffers from the inability to measure risk exposures, default probabilities and credit spreads. Importantly, this new framework can be adapted for policy analysis, including debt and reserve management.

Exports and Imports --- Public Finance --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- Debt --- Debt Management --- Sovereign Debt --- International economics --- Public finance & taxation --- Local currency debt --- Foreign currency debt --- Debt sustainability --- Debt sustainability analysis --- Public debt --- Debts, External --- Debts, Public --- United States

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The Islamic Republic of Iran inherited a highly centralized economy. The state-owned enterprises had monopolies over large sectors of the economy, including the financial system. This was compounded by Iran's excessive dependence on the volatile oil exports. Iran's five-year development plan aims at accelerating growth to create sufficient employment opportunities for a rapidly expanding labor force. De-monopolizing the economy, liberalizing trade, promoting private investment, strengthening the financial system, and improving the fiscal and monetary policy settings is required.

Exports and Imports --- Foreign Exchange --- Trade: General --- International Lending and Debt Problems --- International economics --- Currency --- Foreign exchange --- Exports --- Imports --- External debt --- Oil exports --- International trade --- Debts, External --- Iran, Islamic Republic of